Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.78 – 152.07

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 168.6 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.1 ±9.3

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 54.13Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 66Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 54.65Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.1 ±9.3

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 67.14Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 41.79Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 43.14Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3847, 2881, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3847, 2881, 4192

Auto

34.8 22%

Teleop

88.6 55%

Endgame

36.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5427, 1477, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5427, 1477, 127

Auto

15.0 11%

Teleop

81.4 59%

Endgame

42.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score174.8pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 104–223
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 618 vs event baseline 264.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.1Season APEX458.1

34.8Auto15

88.6Teleop81.4

36.5Endgame42

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	40
teleop	259	35
endgame	121	54
foul	0	0
total	489	129

Result

Final score

489 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 168.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree