Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.46 – 155.08

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 89.2 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.3 ±9.8

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX -Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX -Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 75.43Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.1 ±12.7

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 48.86Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 61.71Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX -Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9418, 6377, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9418, 6377, 5829

Auto

44.7 29%

Teleop

75.4 50%

Endgame

31.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3616, 5431, 4587

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.1 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3616, 5431, 4587

Auto

22.2 15%

Teleop

76.3 52%

Endgame

48.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score155.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 107–212
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 498 vs event baseline 267.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.3Season APEX227.1

18Auto8.9

30.9Teleop54

13.7Endgame39.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	37
teleop	197	72
endgame	79	74
foul	0	0
total	315	183

Result

Final score

315 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 89.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree