Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

167.45 – 239.51

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.9 ±12.2

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 18.78Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 80.95Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 67.72Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.7 ±9.9

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 36.28Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 132.15Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 71.08Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6357, 3616, 8515

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.5 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6357, 3616, 8515

Auto

43.6 25%

Teleop

100.1 58%

Endgame

30.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2585, 2881, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.5 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2585, 2881, 1477

Auto

60.1 25%

Teleop

129.4 54%

Endgame

51.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score167.5pts

Blue projected score239.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.1
Score range: 119–288
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 264.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.9Season APEX520.7

43.6Auto60.1

100.1Teleop129.4

30.2Endgame51.9

93Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	66
teleop	120	214
endgame	25	76
foul	0	0
total	200	356

Result

Final score

200 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 74.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree