Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.02 – 269.01

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

411 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 499 ±9.8

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 107.31Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 147.22Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 139.49Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 580.7 ±9.3

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 123.46Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 103.62Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 41.93Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 9418, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

394 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 9418, 7312

Auto

47.4 12%

Teleop

224.4 57%

Endgame

120.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3847, 2582, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3847, 2582, 2587

Auto

63.8 25%

Teleop

135.2 53%

Endgame

57.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score394pts

Blue projected score269pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125
Score range: 222–441
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 864 vs event baseline 262.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

499Season APEX580.7

47.4Auto63.8

224.4Teleop135.2

120.4Endgame57

62Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	75
teleop	248	282
endgame	122	96
foul	0	0
total	411	453

Result

Final score

411 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 100.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree