Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

161.73 – 213.86

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.7 ±10.5

5431Titan Robotics

Season APEX 50.7Event APEX 36.35Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 43.36Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 82.02Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.2 ±9.3

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 57.91Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 86.02Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 69.93Rank 32Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5431, 4639, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5431, 4639, 5414

Auto

27.5 17%

Teleop

87.2 54%

Endgame

47.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5427, 10014, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5427, 10014, 624

Auto

36.6 17%

Teleop

129.9 60%

Endgame

49.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score161.7pts

Blue projected score213.9pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.1
Score range: 114–262
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 264.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.7Season APEX550.2

27.5Auto36.6

87.2Teleop129.9

47.1Endgame49.3

102Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	49
teleop	9	106
endgame	22	53
foul	0	5
total	53	213

Result

Final score

53 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree