Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

239.36 – 241.49

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

494 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 145.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.8 ±11.7

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 2.08Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 44.67Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 192.61Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.8 ±10

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 101.59Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 47.34Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 92.56Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5070, 8515, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5070, 8515, 8044

Auto

53.1 22%

Teleop

165.3 69%

Endgame

20.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6377, NaN, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6377, NaN, 3616

Auto

45.6 20%

Teleop

88.0 38%

Endgame

97.9 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score239.4pts

Blue projected score241.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 192–288
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 699 vs event baseline 261.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.8Season APEX240.8

53.1Auto45.6

165.3Teleop88

20.6Endgame97.9

92Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	38
teleop	290	136
endgame	81	31
foul	0	0
total	494	205

Result

Final score

494 – 205

Prediction missed · off by 145.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree