Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

210.72 – 149.08

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

281 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 110.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.7 ±11.2

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -1.14Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 91.42Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 120.44Rank 24Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.3 ±11.9

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 24.95Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 109.16Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 14.97Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5070, 6377, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.7 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5070, 6377, 9140

Auto

27.0 14%

Teleop

96.1 49%

Endgame

73.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4336, 3847, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4336, 3847, 5503

Auto

41.6 30%

Teleop

63.8 46%

Endgame

33.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score210.7pts

Blue projected score149.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.6
Score range: 102–258
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 262.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.7Season APEX381.3

27Auto41.6

96.1Teleop63.8

73.1Endgame33.5

111Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	71
teleop	150	162
endgame	105	66
foul	0	0
total	281	299

Result

Final score

281 – 299

Prediction missed · off by 110.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree