Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

544.81 – 270.21

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

577 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.6 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 320.34Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 138.22Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 86.25Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.8 ±9.2

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 153.44Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 59.93Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 56.84Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 9418, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

544.8 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9128, 9418, 10014

Auto

57.1 11%

Teleop

333.5 62%

Endgame

148.5 28%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7312, NaN, 8515

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.2 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7312, NaN, 8515

Auto

56.2 20%

Teleop

162.9 59%

Endgame

56.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.83 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score544.8pts

Blue projected score270.2pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 274.6
Score range: 224–591
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 785 vs event baseline 257.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.6Season APEX229.8

57.1Auto56.2

333.5Teleop162.9

148.5Endgame56.9

94Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	131	20
teleop	331	112
endgame	115	76
foul	0	0
total	577	208

Result

Final score

577 – 208

Prediction correct · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree