Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.99 – 269.89

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.9 ±7.8

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 53.22Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX 21.03Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 74.74Rank 32Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.4 ±10.7

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 178.11Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 2.74Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 89.04Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · NaN, 8370, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 8370, 624

Auto

32.5 21%

Teleop

106.1 70%

Endgame

13.9 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 127, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8044, 127, 3616

Auto

70.7 27%

Teleop

137.7 53%

Endgame

51.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score149pts

Blue projected score269.9pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.9
Score range: 102–317
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 259.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.9Season APEX583.4

32.5Auto70.7

106.1Teleop137.7

13.9Endgame51.8

63Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	72
teleop	113	186
endgame	20	61
foul	0	0
total	149	319

Result

Final score

149 – 319

Prediction correct · off by 24.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree