Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.7 – 144.24

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

230 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.8 ±9.9

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 60.24Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 116.27Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 84.19Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.9 ±11.7

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 138.71Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 12.87Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -7.34Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8515, 3847, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.7 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8515, 3847, 5414

Auto

66.2 26%

Teleop

159.2 61%

Endgame

34.2 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4192, 5503, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4192, 5503, 5070

Auto

6.0 5%

Teleop

62.1 49%

Endgame

59.4 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score260.7pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.5
Score range: 97–308
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 260.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.8Season APEX166.9

66.2Auto6

159.2Teleop62.1

34.2Endgame59.4

110Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	38
teleop	102	90
endgame	47	35
foul	0	5
total	230	168

Result

Final score

230 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree