Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.07 – 177.28

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 104.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±8.5

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 53.13Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 76.85Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 58.09Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 389.1 ±11.7

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 51.68Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 29.9Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 95.7Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2587, NaN, 324

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2587, NaN, 324

Auto

30.7 17%

Teleop

96.2 53%

Endgame

56.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5427, 456, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5427, 456, 8576

Auto

34.6 20%

Teleop

89.2 52%

Endgame

49.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score188.1pts

Blue projected score177.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.8
Score range: 130–235
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 262.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258Season APEX389.1

30.7Auto34.6

96.2Teleop89.2

56.1Endgame49.1

59Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	47
teleop	21	159
endgame	28	65
foul	0	0
total	72	271

Result

Final score

72 – 271

Prediction missed · off by 104.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree