Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.74 – 150.11

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

330 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 723.6 ±8.7

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 140.55Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 82.85Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 117.34Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±12.4

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 21.75Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 29.24Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 99.12Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2881, 10014, 1296

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2881, 10014, 1296

Auto

63.3 18%

Teleop

195.4 57%

Endgame

85.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4587, 4336, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4587, 4336, 5829

Auto

28.7 22%

Teleop

78.9 60%

Endgame

24.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score340.7pts

Blue projected score150.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 190.6
Score range: 103–388
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 263.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

723.6Season APEX324.9

63.3Auto28.7

195.4Teleop78.9

85.9Endgame24.8

117Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	28
teleop	181	94
endgame	59	54
foul	0	0
total	330	176

Result

Final score

330 – 176

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree