Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

183.69 – 194.41

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.5 ±9.8

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 112.72Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 46.18Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 24.79Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.5 ±11.7

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 59.98Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 44.75Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 89.68Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 5427, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 5427, 5503

Auto

40.7 22%

Teleop

96.1 52%

Endgame

46.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 456, 2585, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.4 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 456, 2585, 10014

Auto

43.6 22%

Teleop

97.4 50%

Endgame

54.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score183.7pts

Blue projected score194.4pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 131–247
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 292.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.5Season APEX407.5

40.7Auto43.6

96.1Teleop97.4

46.3Endgame54.9

134Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	48
teleop	130	117
endgame	73	66
foul	0	0
total	235	231

Result

Final score

235 – 231

Prediction missed · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree