Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.14 – 302.37

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

173 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.4 ±9.8

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 59.3Rank 32Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 3.85Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 47.99Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.1 ±7.1

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 67.37Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 169.23Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 65.77Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 5503, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.1 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 624, 5503, 2587

Auto

25.1 22%

Teleop

83.1 72%

Endgame

7.4 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · NaN, 8044, 1477

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.4 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: NaN, 8044, 1477

Auto

75.3 27%

Teleop

134.9 49%

Endgame

65.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score111.1pts

Blue projected score302.4pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.2
Score range: 64–349
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 261.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.4Season APEX555.1

25.1Auto75.3

83.1Teleop134.9

7.4Endgame65.2

68Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	93
teleop	104	245
endgame	38	72
foul	0	0
total	173	410

Result

Final score

173 – 410

Prediction correct · off by 84.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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