Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204 – 164.44

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356 ±10.4

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 40.07Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 113.82Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 50.11Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.6 ±7.8

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 23.8Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 120.28Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

NaN

Season APEX -Event APEX 20.36Rank 37Record 2-7-0Status -Confidence -

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4639, 9418, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

204 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4639, 9418, 5427

Auto

11.3 5%

Teleop

107.8 51%

Endgame

94.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7492, 1296, NaN

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7492, 1296, NaN

Auto

44.2 25%

Teleop

97.8 56%

Endgame

32.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score204pts

Blue projected score164.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.6
Score range: 117–251
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356Season APEX387.6

11.3Auto44.2

107.8Teleop97.8

94.3Endgame32.2

145Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	48
teleop	165	156
endgame	88	50
foul	15	0
total	292	254

Result

Final score

292 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree