Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195 – 212.88

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±11.7

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 54.07Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8370Glow With The Flow

Season APEX 47.1Event APEX -10.72Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 151.65Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.9 ±10.4

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 11.39Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 21.86Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 179.63Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3616, 8370, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3616, 8370, 4192

Auto

30.1 17%

Teleop

70.4 39%

Endgame

79.0 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5503, 6357, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.9 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5503, 6357, 7312

Auto

32.0 14%

Teleop

151.2 68%

Endgame

40.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score195pts

Blue projected score212.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.9
Score range: 147–261
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 265.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.2Season APEX245.9

30.1Auto32

70.4Teleop151.2

79Endgame40.6

91Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	28
teleop	175	119
endgame	80	86
foul	0	0
total	295	233

Result

Final score

295 – 233

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree