Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

439.43 – 323.92

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

585 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648 ±8.4

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 132.03Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 200.68Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 106.72Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.1 ±9.8

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 91.3Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 85.3Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 147.32Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 10340, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.4 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 118, 10340, 6377

Auto

90.6 21%

Teleop

265.2 61%

Endgame

81.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9418, 8576, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9418, 8576, 2881

Auto

41.5 13%

Teleop

218.1 66%

Endgame

70.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score439.4pts

Blue projected score323.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.5
Score range: 278–485
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 982 vs event baseline 257.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648Season APEX498.1

90.6Auto41.5

265.2Teleop218.1

81.6Endgame70.3

124Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	52
teleop	315	200
endgame	143	145
foul	30	0
total	585	397

Result

Final score

585 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 109.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree