Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

389.82 – 103.15

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

289 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 715.8 ±9.3

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 189.33Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3847Spectrum -△◅

Season APEX 245.1Event APEX 140.36Rank 5Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 60.13Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.4 ±11.9

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 89.02Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 24.37Rank 36Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX -10.24Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 3847, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.8 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8044, 3847, 5427

Auto

80.5 21%

Teleop

229.1 60%

Endgame

74.8 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 7691, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10014, 7691, 4336

Auto

4.9 5%

Teleop

62.3 67%

Endgame

26.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.67 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score389.8pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 286.7
Score range: 57–436
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 258.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

715.8Season APEX392.4

80.5Auto4.9

229.1Teleop62.3

74.8Endgame26.4

71Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	29
teleop	113	103
endgame	75	60
foul	0	20
total	289	212

Result

Final score

289 – 212

Prediction correct · off by 104.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree