Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

342.38 – 195.33

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

352 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 80.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 426.7 ±9.8

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 211.61Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 119.66Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 11.11Rank 38Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.5 ±9.8

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 147.48Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX -6.36Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 54.21Rank 35Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7312, 5829, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.4 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7312, 5829, 7492

Auto

77.1 23%

Teleop

194.2 59%

Endgame

60.3 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8044, 5503, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.3 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8044, 5503, 8576

Auto

26.2 14%

Teleop

127.2 69%

Endgame

31.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.53 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score342.4pts

Blue projected score195.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147
Score range: 150–387
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 249.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

426.7Season APEX528.5

77.1Auto26.2

194.2Teleop127.2

60.3Endgame31.2

81Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	86
teleop	210	225
endgame	86	35
foul	0	0
total	352	346

Result

Final score

352 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 80.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree