Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.61 – 340.09

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 482

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226.6 ±12.2

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 37.03Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 69.6Rank 25Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9418Pastabots

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 77.98Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.3 ±9.3

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 79.51Rank 8Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 128.32Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 132.26Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5070, 2585, 9418

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.6 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5070, 2585, 9418

Auto

12.7 7%

Teleop

128.4 68%

Endgame

48.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5829, 4192, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5829, 4192, 8044

Auto

44.5 13%

Teleop

200.0 60%

Endgame

87.9 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score184.6pts

Blue projected score340.1pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.5
Score range: 140–385
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 252.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226.6Season APEX607.3

12.7Auto44.5

128.4Teleop200

48.8Endgame87.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	103
teleop	109	250
endgame	75	99
foul	0	30
total	185	482

Result

Final score

185 – 482

Prediction correct · off by 71.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree