Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

178.23 – 290.56

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 102.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237 ±11.7

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 36.65Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 63.55Rank 36Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 78.03Rank 26Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576.1 ±9.3

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 75.27Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 57.58Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 157.71Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 7691, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5503, 7691, 3616

Auto

19.8 11%

Teleop

105.0 60%

Endgame

51.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2582, 5427, 2881

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.6 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2582, 5427, 2881

Auto

67.6 22%

Teleop

160.9 52%

Endgame

82.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score178.2pts

Blue projected score290.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -112.3
Score range: 131–338
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 259.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237Season APEX576.1

19.8Auto67.6

105Teleop160.9

51.3Endgame82.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	69
teleop	12	124
endgame	7	46
foul	0	0
total	24	239

Result

Final score

24 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 102.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree