Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

222.84 – 227.78

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 588.9 ±9.3

1296Full Metal Jackets

Season APEX 262.7Event APEX 105.09Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1477Texas Torque

Season APEX 214.2Event APEX 46.35Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 71.4Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.7 ±9.1

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 91.22Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 25.02Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 111.54Rank 6Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1296, 1477, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1296, 1477, 4639

Auto

36.2 17%

Teleop

118.2 55%

Endgame

58.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8515, 127, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.8 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8515, 127, 118

Auto

35.6 15%

Teleop

151.6 65%

Endgame

45.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score222.8pts

Blue projected score227.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.9
Score range: 176–275
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 261.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

588.9Season APEX457.7

36.2Auto35.6

118.2Teleop151.6

58.9Endgame45.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	62
teleop	89	192
endgame	54	0
foul	45	0
total	224	254

Result

Final score

224 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree