Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

346.3 – 408.19

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

463 – 553

Prediction correct · off by 130.8 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 616.6 ±9.3

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 19.85Rank 32Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 225.52Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 100.93Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.6 ±9.8

324Chips

Season APEX 133.4Event APEX 100.93Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 225.52Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 81.74Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 7312, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.3 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 624, 7312, 10340

Auto

44.8 13%

Teleop

218.7 64%

Endgame

76.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 324, 9128, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

408.2 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 324, 9128, 6377

Auto

59.8 15%

Teleop

264.0 64%

Endgame

86.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score346.3pts

Blue projected score408.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.9
Score range: 300–454
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1016 vs event baseline 253.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

616.6Season APEX590.6

44.8Auto59.8

218.7Teleop264

76.3Endgame86.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	89
teleop	286	292
endgame	80	142
foul	5	30
total	463	553

Result

Final score

463 – 553

Prediction correct · off by 130.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree