Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

306.99 – 209.84

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

152 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 102.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.8 ±13

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 66Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 32.42Rank 31Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 208.57Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±10.5

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 106.29Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 48.41Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2582PantherBots

Season APEX 211Event APEX 55.14Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 456, 4336, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

307 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 456, 4336, 8044

Auto

49.8 17%

Teleop

191.1 64%

Endgame

59.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8515, 4639, 2582

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8515, 4639, 2582

Auto

45.4 22%

Teleop

109.2 53%

Endgame

53.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score307pts

Blue projected score209.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.2
Score range: 163–354
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 411 vs event baseline 258.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

548.8Season APEX430.7

49.8Auto45.4

191.1Teleop109.2

59.9Endgame53.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	40
teleop	71	183
endgame	28	36
foul	15	0
total	152	259

Result

Final score

152 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 102.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree