Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.88 – 99.14

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

369 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 563.6 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 116.98Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 5.54Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 176.36Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.7 ±11

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 27.16Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 44.27Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 27.71Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 4153, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3005, 4153, 148

Auto

46.5 16%

Teleop

184.8 63%

Endgame

64.3 22%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7540, 4192, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 4192, 3310

Auto

26.4 27%

Teleop

47.3 48%

Endgame

24.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.9pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 199.7
Score range: 75–323
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 526 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

563.6Season APEX278.7

46.5Auto26.4

184.8Teleop47.3

64.3Endgame24.6

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	34
teleop	235	78
endgame	65	30
foul	0	15
total	369	157

Result

Final score

369 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Match videos

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