Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

33.88 – 97.35

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±11.6

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 9.41Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 14.78Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 9.69Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.7 ±11

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 27.38Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 43.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 26.74Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4641, 3676, 4076

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 3676, 4076

Auto

15.4 59%

Teleop

7.2 28%

Endgame

3.4 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7540, 4192, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 4192, 3310

Auto

24.1 25%

Teleop

48.5 50%

Endgame

23.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.9pts

Blue projected score97.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.5
Score range: 11–120
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 177 vs event baseline 130.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.3Season APEX278.7

15.4Auto24.1

7.2Teleop48.5

3.4Endgame23.6

13Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	40
teleop	28	38
endgame	19	35
foul	0	0
total	64	113

Result

Final score

64 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Match videos

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