Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.91 – 80.9

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 118.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±10.4

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 81Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 110.95Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 5.96Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.7 ±11

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 20.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 37.06Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 23.18Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 2728, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2714, 2728, 10032

Auto

33.6 17%

Teleop

113.4 58%

Endgame

47.3 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 4192, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 4192, 7540

Auto

20.9 26%

Teleop

40.3 50%

Endgame

19.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.9pts

Blue projected score80.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117
Score range: 58–221
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.5Season APEX278.7

33.6Auto20.9

113.4Teleop40.3

47.3Endgame19.5

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	37
teleop	228	87
endgame	84	42
foul	0	5
total	344	171

Result

Final score

344 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 118.1 pts

Match videos

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