Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.21 – 33.86

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.4 ±9.8

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 71.52Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 12.81Rank 21Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 93.88Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.3 ±11.6

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 15.07Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 9.58Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 9.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6672, 6901, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6672, 6901, 8858

Auto

25.3 14%

Teleop

103.6 59%

Endgame

45.6 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3676, 4076, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3676, 4076, 4641

Auto

13.4 53%

Teleop

9.9 39%

Endgame

1.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.2pts

Blue projected score33.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.4
Score range: 11–201
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 130.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.4Season APEX170.3

25.3Auto13.4

103.6Teleop9.9

45.6Endgame1.9

41Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	24
teleop	119	14
endgame	28	13
foul	10	5
total	186	56

Result

Final score

186 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Match videos

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