Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.75 – 244.12

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 442.7 ±10.5

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 35.8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 21.69Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 60.26Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.5 ±10.4

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 94.97Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 128.05Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 21.1Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7503, 7119, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7503, 7119, 4206

Auto

25.6 23%

Teleop

58.7 52%

Endgame

28.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2714, 2728, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2714, 2728, 10032

Auto

34.5 14%

Teleop

145.0 61%

Endgame

59.8 25%

Strengths

· 2728 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.8pts

Blue projected score244.1pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.4
Score range: 94–268
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

442.7Season APEX330.5

25.6Auto34.5

58.7Teleop145

28.9Endgame59.8

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	56
teleop	77	213
endgame	19	84
foul	0	10
total	122	363

Result

Final score

122 – 363

Prediction correct · off by 61.6 pts

Match videos

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