Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.22 – 85.72

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.1 ±14.4

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 20.76Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5212TAMSformers Robotics

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 16.74Rank 19Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 37.72Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±10.5

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 49.7Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 20.76Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 15.26Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6672, 5212, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6672, 5212, 4641

Auto

12.1 21%

Teleop

37.2 64%

Endgame

8.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 10032, 4076

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8858, 10032, 4076

Auto

19.1 22%

Teleop

58.1 67%

Endgame

10.0 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.2pts

Blue projected score85.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.5
Score range: 55–106
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.1Season APEX327.4

12.1Auto19.1

37.2Teleop58.1

8.7Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	37	80
endgame	11	10
foul	15	30
total	84	138

Result

Final score

84 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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