Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.43 – 124.69

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.4 ±12.2

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 16.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 7.9Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 82.21Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 423.4 ±9.8

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 36.23Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 6.25Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 82.21Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9786, 3676, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9786, 3676, 7540

Auto

4.3 5%

Teleop

56.5 61%

Endgame

31.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 4192, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4206, 4192, 2714

Auto

8.5 7%

Teleop

83.3 70%

Endgame

28.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score124.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.3
Score range: 87–144
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 107.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.4Season APEX423.4

4.3Auto8.5

56.5Teleop83.3

31.3Endgame28

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	42
teleop	6	158
endgame	29	63
foul	5	0
total	49	263

Result

Final score

49 – 263

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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