Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.2 – 120.5

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.8 ±11.7

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 116.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 10.21Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -12.44Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±11

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 33.4Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 72Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 15.1Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 4641, 7121

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3005, 4641, 7121

Auto

30.1 28%

Teleop

59.5 55%

Endgame

17.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10032, 6672, 1164

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10032, 6672, 1164

Auto

21.0 18%

Teleop

69.6 61%

Endgame

23.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.2pts

Blue projected score120.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.3
Score range: 88–147
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.8Season APEX230.8

30.1Auto21

59.5Teleop69.6

17.9Endgame23.7

47Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	17
teleop	64	15
endgame	6	18
foul	15	5
total	114	55

Result

Final score

114 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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