Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.88 – 73.25

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 203.4 ±14.4

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 19.83Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5212TAMSformers Robotics

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 19.7Rank 19Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 15.35Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.2 ±11

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 11.16Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 39.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 22.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7119, 5212, 3676

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7119, 5212, 3676

Auto

13.0 27%

Teleop

18.5 38%

Endgame

17.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4641, 4192, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 4192, 3310

Auto

29.1 48%

Teleop

26.0 43%

Endgame

5.9 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.9pts

Blue projected score73.3pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.4
Score range: 32–96
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 126.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

203.4Season APEX286.2

13Auto29.1

18.5Teleop26

17.3Endgame5.9

28Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	23
teleop	40	56
endgame	22	13
foul	0	0
total	78	92

Result

Final score

78 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 20.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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