Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

12.67 – 87.14

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.4 ±14.9

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 3.95Rank 21Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 16.48Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -7.76Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±11.7

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 1.83Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 54.97Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 30.34Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6901, 7534, 7121

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6901, 7534, 7121

Auto

16.0 100%

Teleop

-1.8 0%

Endgame

-3.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4076, 4206, 9786

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4076, 4206, 9786

Auto

19.6 26%

Teleop

36.4 48%

Endgame

20.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score12.7pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.5
Score range: -9–109
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 127 vs event baseline 124.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.4Season APEX283.8

16Auto19.6

-1.8Teleop36.4

-3.7Endgame20.5

28Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	24
teleop	7	48
endgame	9	19
foul	5	0
total	36	91

Result

Final score

36 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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