Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.29 – 123.59

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

255 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382 ±10.5

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 9.58Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 15.66Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 190.05Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317 ±11.7

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 13.38Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 95.5Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 14.71Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4641, 3676, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 3676, 148

Auto

38.1 19%

Teleop

118.2 59%

Endgame

43.7 22%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1164, 8858, 9137

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 8858, 9137

Auto

12.7 10%

Teleop

68.6 55%

Endgame

43.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.3pts

Blue projected score123.6pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.7
Score range: 102–237
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 122.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382Season APEX317

38.1Auto12.7

118.2Teleop68.6

43.7Endgame43.5

36Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	21
teleop	178	69
endgame	35	34
foul	5	5
total	255	129

Result

Final score

255 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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