Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.68 – 55.87

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.3 ±14.5

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 16.48Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 126.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9786MHS Wolfpack Team 9786

Season APEX 39.8Event APEX 28.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.2 ±12.2

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -9.98Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -0.1Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 65.95Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7534, 3005, 9786

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7534, 3005, 9786

Auto

27.5 17%

Teleop

88.9 56%

Endgame

41.1 26%

Strengths

· 3005 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7121, 4076, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7121, 4076, 6672

Auto

22.8 44%

Teleop

28.6 55%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.7pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.8
Score range: 34–194
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 299 vs event baseline 122.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

307.3Season APEX185.2

27.5Auto22.8

88.9Teleop28.6

41.1Endgame0.4

33Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	95	66
endgame	81	12
foul	5	0
total	200	99

Result

Final score

200 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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