Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.66 – 205.18

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±11

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 70.91Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 14.81Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 12.94Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±14

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 9.8Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 183.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5212TAMSformers Robotics

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 12.05Rank 19Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 7119, 3676

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2714, 7119, 3676

Auto

10.7 11%

Teleop

52.6 52%

Endgame

37.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1164, 148, 5212

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 148, 5212

Auto

38.7 19%

Teleop

122.5 61%

Endgame

40.8 20%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.7pts

Blue projected score205.2pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.5
Score range: 77–227
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 121.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX326.8

10.7Auto38.7

52.6Teleop122.5

37.9Endgame40.8

19Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	40
teleop	54	165
endgame	35	59
foul	0	10
total	105	274

Result

Final score

105 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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