Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.46 – 8.44

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.8 ±10.5

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 121.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 40.91Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -4.61Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.8 ±12.2

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 21.09Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -10.96Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX -1.69Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3005, 4192, 4076

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3005, 4192, 4076

Auto

37.9 25%

Teleop

92.6 62%

Endgame

19.7 13%

Strengths

· 3005 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7540, 7121, 10032

/ 100 compat

Projected

8.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 7121, 10032

Auto

7.2 92%

Teleop

9.8 100%

Endgame

-9.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.5pts

Blue projected score8.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 149
Score range: -14–179
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 122.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.8Season APEX134.8

37.9Auto7.2

92.6Teleop9.8

19.7Endgame-9.2

15Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	18
teleop	114	8
endgame	53	0
foul	0	0
total	202	26

Result

Final score

202 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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