Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.79 – 41.68

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.4 ±10.5

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 5.91Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 56.61Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 8.27Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.7 ±10.4

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 17.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 15.89Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 8.38Rank 21Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4641, 4206, 4153

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4641, 4206, 4153

Auto

23.1 37%

Teleop

23.1 37%

Endgame

16.4 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 3676, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 3676, 6901

Auto

20.8 57%

Teleop

4.0 11%

Endgame

11.9 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.8pts

Blue projected score41.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.1
Score range: 21–92
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.4Season APEX272.7

23.1Auto20.8

23.1Teleop4

16.4Endgame11.9

28Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	30	29
endgame	40	9
foul	25	0
total	116	64

Result

Final score

116 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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