Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

185.11 – 224.63

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

338 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 98.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.5 ±13.5

5212TAMSformers Robotics

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 3.29Rank 19Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 105.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 75.87Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.8 ±10.5

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 172.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 6.32Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 45.79Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5212, 3005, 2728

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5212, 3005, 2728

Auto

44.2 24%

Teleop

106.0 58%

Endgame

33.8 18%

Strengths

· 3005 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 148, 4076, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 148, 4076, 4192

Auto

45.2 21%

Teleop

131.4 62%

Endgame

35.7 17%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.1pts

Blue projected score224.6pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 165–245
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 518 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.5Season APEX382.8

44.2Auto45.2

106Teleop131.4

33.8Endgame35.7

40Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	45
teleop	196	130
endgame	72	5
foul	10	0
total	338	180

Result

Final score

338 – 180

Prediction missed · off by 98.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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