Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.2 – 56.88

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.5 ±11.6

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 2.64Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 37.48Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 3.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.6 ±14.4

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 19.54Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 17.38Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 19.96Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1164, 7503, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1164, 7503, 4641

Auto

22.6 72%

Teleop

-3.7 0%

Endgame

12.5 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 7534, 7540

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 7534, 7540

Auto

13.5 23%

Teleop

33.1 57%

Endgame

11.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.2pts

Blue projected score56.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.7
Score range: 22–78
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 117.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.5Season APEX217.6

22.6Auto13.5

-3.7Teleop33.1

12.5Endgame11.1

35Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	42	34
endgame	11	9
foul	0	0
total	73	60

Result

Final score

73 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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