Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

145.05 – 16.37

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.3 ±10.5

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 67.87Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 29.85Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 47.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.4 ±11.6

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -3.86Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 2.3Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 17.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 7540, 7503

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4206, 7540, 7503

Auto

22.7 15%

Teleop

77.7 53%

Endgame

46.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4076, 1164, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

16.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4076, 1164, 3310

Auto

24.7 100%

Teleop

-5.0 0%

Endgame

-3.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score145.1pts

Blue projected score16.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.7
Score range: -5–166
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 116.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.3Season APEX231.4

22.7Auto24.7

77.7Teleop-5

46.6Endgame-3.7

0Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	56	20
endgame	23	0
foul	0	10
total	101	52

Result

Final score

101 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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