Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

202.71 – 71.23

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.5 ±10.5

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 106Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 90.24Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 6.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±14.4

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 21.42Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 11.64Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6672Fusion Corps

Season APEX 120.9Event APEX 38.17Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8858, 2714, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8858, 2714, 4641

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

118.5 61%

Endgame

49.8 26%

Strengths

· 8858 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7119, 7534, 6672

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7119, 7534, 6672

Auto

10.2 16%

Teleop

42.5 65%

Endgame

12.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202.7pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.5
Score range: 50–224
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.5Season APEX262.2

25.5Auto10.2

118.5Teleop42.5

49.8Endgame12.3

69Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	82	67
endgame	67	20
foul	0	0
total	170	101

Result

Final score

170 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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