Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.61 – 79.55

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 92.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.6 ±11.2

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 37.47Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -6.4Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 96.54Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±11.7

3676RedShift Robotics

Season APEX 66.3Event APEX 1.02Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 63.03Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9137Bionic Vipers

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 15.5Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4192, 7121, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4192, 7121, 8858

Auto

24.8 20%

Teleop

74.6 60%

Endgame

25.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3676, 2728, 9137

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3676, 2728, 9137

Auto

12.4 16%

Teleop

41.7 55%

Endgame

22.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.6pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.1
Score range: 60–148
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 111.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.6Season APEX242.2

24.8Auto12.4

74.6Teleop41.7

25.2Endgame22.4

20Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	38
teleop	107	101
endgame	52	63
foul	0	0
total	191	202

Result

Final score

191 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 92.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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