Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

33.91 – 11.78

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

64 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.1 ±13.9

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 17.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 1.11Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 15.25Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.4 ±12.1

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 17.24Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 2.75Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -8.21Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3310, 4153, 7534

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 4153, 7534

Auto

23.8 89%

Teleop

4.7 18%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7119, 1164, 4076

/ 100 compat

Projected

11.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7119, 1164, 4076

Auto

14.8 100%

Teleop

2.6 29%

Endgame

-8.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score33.9pts

Blue projected score11.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.1
Score range: -7–53
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.1Season APEX209.4

23.8Auto14.8

4.7Teleop2.6

-1.7Endgame-8.3

51Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	15
teleop	22	23
endgame	16	16
foul	0	0
total	64	54

Result

Final score

64 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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