Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.57 – 157.39

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.4 ±14.4

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 19.85Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX -9.63Rank 21Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5212TAMSformers Robotics

Season APEX 21.4Event APEX 4.35Rank 19Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.1 ±11

10032Singularity

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 22.47Rank 15Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 108.57Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 26.35Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7540, 6901, 5212

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 6901, 5212

Auto

7.1 37%

Teleop

2.2 11%

Endgame

10.1 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10032, 2714, 4641

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10032, 2714, 4641

Auto

18.5 14%

Teleop

90.4 67%

Endgame

25.5 19%

Strengths

· 2714 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.6pts

Blue projected score157.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -142.8
Score range: -5–177
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 109.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.4Season APEX255.1

7.1Auto18.5

2.2Teleop90.4

10.1Endgame25.5

87Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	16
teleop	24	38
endgame	20	7
foul	0	0
total	55	61

Result

Final score

55 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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