Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.38 – 142.43

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99.2 ±15.3

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX -5.24Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -0.13Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 7.75Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.5 ±9.3

3005RoboChargers

Season APEX 241.9Event APEX 83.63Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX -19.32Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 78.12Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7121, 1164, 7534

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.4 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7121, 1164, 7534

Auto

12.5 100%

Teleop

-14.4 0%

Endgame

2.1 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3005, 4153, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3005, 4153, 8858

Auto

24.5 18%

Teleop

90.9 66%

Endgame

22.3 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score2.4pts

Blue projected score142.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140
Score range: -17–161
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99.2Season APEX536.5

12.5Auto24.5

-14.4Teleop90.9

2.1Endgame22.3

10Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	37
teleop	3	140
endgame	0	75
foul	0	0
total	18	252

Result

Final score

18 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 62.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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