Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

39.66 – 97.46

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.3 ±12.1

7540Timberwolf Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 19.72Rank 17Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4641TALON Inc.

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 19.99Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -0.05Rank 20Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.1 ±11

2728♨️ TACO ♨️

Season APEX 137.2Event APEX 53.87Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7503Radicubs

Season APEX 125.2Event APEX 29.5Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7119Sunset RoboBison

Season APEX 115.7Event APEX 14.09Rank 22Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7540, 4641, 4076

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7540, 4641, 4076

Auto

9.1 43%

Teleop

12.1 57%

Endgame

0.2 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2728, 7503, 7119

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2728, 7503, 7119

Auto

27.4 27%

Teleop

54.1 52%

Endgame

21.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score39.7pts

Blue projected score97.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.8
Score range: 20–117
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.3Season APEX378.1

9.1Auto27.4

12.1Teleop54.1

0.2Endgame21.7

50Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	37
teleop	13	80
endgame	20	31
foul	0	0
total	50	148

Result

Final score

50 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 30.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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