Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.5 – 123.83

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 507.2 ±9.9

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 149.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 57.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 6.87Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.1 ±13.5

7534Dragonflies

Season APEX 25.6Event APEX 2.82Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 54.04Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 66.97Rank 3Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 148, 4206, 1164

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 148, 4206, 1164

Auto

43.6 21%

Teleop

110.7 53%

Endgame

55.1 26%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7534, 4192, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7534, 4192, 8858

Auto

13.8 13%

Teleop

79.4 73%

Endgame

15.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.5pts

Blue projected score123.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.7
Score range: 105–233
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

507.2Season APEX339.1

43.6Auto13.8

110.7Teleop79.4

55.1Endgame15.8

80Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	32
teleop	116	81
endgame	27	45
foul	0	0
total	185	158

Result

Final score

185 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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