Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.83 – 81.47

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.7 ±11.2

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 46.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 106.05Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7121Keller Fusion Robotics

Season APEX 22.1Event APEX 19.32Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206 ±11

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 47.26Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1164Project NEO

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 11.76Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 22.45Rank 16Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3310, 148, 7121

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3310, 148, 7121

Auto

32.1 18%

Teleop

108.7 60%

Endgame

39.1 22%

Strengths

· 148 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4192, 1164, 4153

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4192, 1164, 4153

Auto

23.1 29%

Teleop

37.3 46%

Endgame

20.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.8pts

Blue projected score81.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample126alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.4
Score range: 60–193
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.7Season APEX206

32.1Auto23.1

108.7Teleop37.3

39.1Endgame20.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	20
teleop	83	3
endgame	22	2
foul	0	5
total	157	30

Result

Final score

157 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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